The Money Advantage Podcast

The Money Advantage Podcast


Are We at the Top of the Market?  How to NOT Lose Money

November 18, 2019

After seeing an upward trend in the markets over the past decade, you may be concerned that we’re at the top of the market cycle.  Many people are feeling the volatility and uncertainty.  How do economic factors direct your decision-making?  Should you stay in for the long haul, or ride it out?

In today’s show, we address these concerns and show you how to not lose sleep and not lose money.

You’ll stop feeling the impending sense of crisis and be able to focus on building your wealth goals, regardless of the market, instead.

Where Does Investing Fit into the Cash Flow System?

We’ve developed the 3-step Business Owner's Cash Flow System as your roadmap to go from just surviving, to a life of significance, purpose, and financial freedom.  The first stage is the foundation.  You first keep more of the money you make by fixing money leaks, becoming more efficient and profitable. Then, you protect your money with insurance and legal protection and Privatized Banking. Finally, you put your money to work, increasing your income with cash-flowing assets.

Investing is part of stage 3. It's here that you select an investing strategy that puts you in control.

Market Cycles

Just as there are healthy cycles in biology and farming, the market follows a cyclical pattern.

Wyckoff theory describes the four phases of the market cycle as accumulation, mark-up, distribution, and decline.

To profit, you would want to buy during the mark-up and sell at distribution. But that requires an intimate understanding to be able to predict exactly where where we are in the cycle.

You would also do well to understand the Austrian business cycle and how it impacts access to capital.

Current Market Environment

We’re now seeing all-time highs from a decade-long bull market, along with volatility.

All-Time Highs

Today, the S&P 500 trades at a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of 31.2. There are only two times in history that the CAPE has been materially higher: the 1920s market bubble and the 1990s market bubble – both of which preceded not just stock market corrections, but full-blown bear markets.https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C008-S001-is-a-stock-market-correction-in-the-cards.html

“Stocks are expensive by virtually any metric you want to use,” says John del Vecchio, noted short seller and co-manager of the AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE). “The price-to-sales ratio for the S&P 500 is higher today than during the 1990s dot-com mania.