Several months since COVID-19 emerged in the United States, it’s becoming increasingly clear that pandemic-triggered changes in consumer shopping behavior are here to stay. As a result, the upcoming holiday shopping season will be one like never before.

The most prominent and talked about change in consumer behavior is the ongoing shift from in-store shopping to e-commerce. Merchants were abruptly forced to pivot their business model to accommodate more digital buyers.

To talk about what to expect in the 2020 holiday season, what merchants need to do to be successful, and what barriers could inhibit this success, PaymentsJournal sat down with Gary Sevounts, CMO at Kount, and Tim Sloane, VP of Payments Innovation at Mercator Advisory Group.

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How will this holiday season be different for merchants and consumers?

Many businesses have struggled to stay afloat during the economic downturn caused by COVID-19, making this holiday season crucial for survival—a fact that many businesses recognize. Kount recently surveyed 500 e-commerce companies about the holiday season and found that the vast majority (96%) of merchants agree that this year’s holiday shopping season is more important to their business than 2019’s.

In addition to surveying businesses, Kount asked 1,000 consumers the same questions, finding some interesting and unexpected inconsistencies. “For example, 64% of businesses expect to see the bulk of their holiday shopping in-store, but only 43% of consumers expect that to be their primary shopping outlet,” explained Sevounts. “So what does that mean? It means that online commerce is an even bigger deal than most businesses anticipate.”

This is in line with what other studies have found. Forbes recently cited a study that forecasts online retail to grow 18.5% in 2020, reaching 20.2% overall penetration in North America. Meanwhile, other estimates predict that e-commerce holiday retail sales could grow by 25% to 35% from November to January.