Manifold
Latest Episodes
Philippe Lemoine: Bad Covid Science, Ukraine Analysis, and Philosophy — #62
Philippe Lemoine is a PhD candidate at Cornell University in philosophy and a widely-read public intellectual. We discuss philosophy, the scientific research used to justify COVID lockdowns, and the Russia-Ukraine war.Philippe’s writing: philippelemoine.c
John Seo: Catastrophe Bonds and the Investor Choice Problem — Manifold #61
Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) market for over 25 years. Pri
Molson Hart: China and Amazon, Up Close — #60
Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers an
Jaan Tallinn: AI Risks, Investments, and AGI — #59
Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the
Glenn Luk: China’s economic evolution, GDP, and high speed rail — #58
Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.Steve and Glenn discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn
Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #57
Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and ai
Russell Clark: Japan, China, and USD reserve status — #56
Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: https://www.russell-clark.com/Steve and Russell discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Russell's backgr
Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55
Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.Steve and Stephen discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Stephen Grugetts background5:20 The genesis and mi
Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #54
Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Ric
Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #53
Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?Slides: https://docs.google.com/docu