Latest Episodes

John Seo: Catastrophe Bonds and the Investor Choice Problem — Manifold #61
June 06, 2024

Dr John Seo is co-founder and a managing director at Fermat Capital Management, LLC. He has over 30 years experience in fixed income bond and derivatives trading and has been active in the Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS) market for over 25 years. Pri

Molson Hart: China and Amazon, Up Close — #60
May 16, 2024

Molson Hart is the CEO of Viahart, an educational toy company. He has deep experience selling products manufactured in China, using Amazon and other platforms. He produced a documentary about the challenges Amazon's market dominance creates for sellers an

Jaan Tallinn: AI Risks, Investments, and AGI — #59
May 02, 2024

Jaan Tallinn is a billionaire computer programmer and investor. He was a co-founder of Skype, and has invested in companies like DeepMind and Anthropic.Tallinn is a leading figure in the field of existential risk, having co-founded both the Centre for the

Glenn Luk: China’s economic evolution, GDP, and high speed rail — #58
April 18, 2024

Glenn Luk has worked as an investment banker, private equity investor, and startup founder. He has closely analyzed aspects of the Chinese economy, including its GDP and high speed rail system.Steve and Glenn discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:21) - Glenn

Casey Handmer: Terraform Industries and a carbon-neutral future — #57
April 04, 2024

Casey Handmer (PhD, Caltech, general relativity) is the founder of Terraform Industries. He is one of the most capable and ambitious geo-engineers on planet Earth!Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and ai

Russell Clark: Japan, China, and USD reserve status — #56
March 21, 2024

Russell Clark is a hedge fund investor who has lived and worked in both Japan and China. He writes the widely followed Substack Capital Flows and Asset Markets: and Russell discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Russell's backgr

Stephen Grugett: Predicting the Future with Manifold Markets — #55
March 07, 2024

Stephen Grugett is the co-founder of Manifold Markets, the world's largest prediction market platform where people bet on politics, tech, sports, and more.Steve and Stephen discuss:0:00 Introduction0:52 Stephen Grugetts background5:20 The genesis and mi

Ray McGovern: CIA, JFK, Deep State, and Ukraine Crisis — #54
February 22, 2024

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst, serving from 1963 to 1990. His CIA career began under President John F. Kennedy and lasted through the presidency of George H. W. Bush. McGovern advised Henry Kissinger during the Ric

Lecture: Fermi Paradox, AI, Simulation Question — #53
February 08, 2024

Steve discusses DNA and the origin of life on Earth, the Fermi Paradox (is there alien life?), AI and its implications for the Simulation Question: could our universe be a simulation? Are we machines, but don't know it?Slides:

Utah AG Sean Reyes: “Sound of Freedom” and Human Trafficking — #52
January 25, 2024

Sean Reyes is Utahs Attorney General and a producer for the movie Sound of Freedom. Steve and Sean discuss his personal story, human trafficking, and the role of technology in law enforcement.More on Reyes: