We’re two weeks into a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which so far has allowed half a million displaced people to return to what’s left of their homes in the northern Gaza Strip. The first phase of the ceasefire involves an exchange of hostages and prisoners, hundreds of humanitarian aid trucks a day, and the retreat of Israeli forces from populated areas.

Negotiations on stages two and three of the ceasefire still have yet to come. Phase two would  bring discussions on a more durable ceasefire, more hostage exchanges, and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces. Phase three would bring the return of all remaining bodies of dead hostages, and a reconstruction of Gaza. The details, though, have yet to be ironed out. And that’s why this agreement, says analyst Mouin Rabbani, has been described as fragile.

But despite the deal, Israel has engaged in an almost daily violation of the ceasefire — from bombings to air raids to systemic demolition, and a refusal to withdraw from Lebanese territory daily. “That situation, I think, is a lot more combustible than the Gaza Strip,” says Rabbani, a frequent guest on this program who returns today.  As Dropsite News reports, Israel has continued its scorched earth campaign during the ceasefire, killing over 80 Palestinians in a 24-hour period.

Rabbani and Ruff spend the hour dissecting the ceasefire — its unique timing on the day before Trump took office, what could change now that Biden is out of the picture, and how the agreement could be derailed.

About the guest:

 Mouin Rabbani is an expert on Palestinian affairs, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the contemporary Middle East. He’s currently a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies.

Rabbani is co-editor of the e-magazine Jadaliyya and a Contributing Editor to the Middle East Report. He’s written widely and provided expert analysis to a variety of international and US national press, including Al-Jazeera, The Nation, and Democracy Now!.

He’s host of the Connections podcast and his forthcoming book, from OR Books, is titled Gaza Apocalypse: Causes and Consequences. You can follow him on X @MouinRabbani.

Remixed image courtesy rajatonvimma /// VJ Group Random Doctors, licensed under CC 2.0 

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