In this episode of The Crude Truth, host Rey Treviño III sits down with oil and gas finance expert Michael Tanner to break down the recent turbulence in global oil markets. From U.S. airstrikes and geopolitical risks to weekend market timing and exaggerated $100 oil forecasts - this conversation uncovers the facts behind the headlines. Michael dives into the economics of drilling, the true state of U.S. production, and why predictions of skyrocketing prices might not hold up. Whether you're in oil and gas or just trying to make sense of what’s happening at the pump, this episode delivers clarity with no fluff.

When examining well economics, we consider data from offsetting wells, the entire region, and then extend our analysis to global markets. We are seeing that profitability can still be a factor at lower oil prices, as cost-cutting and geological considerations play a role in our decisions. Conventional plays have become increasingly critical to the United States' energy security, as the price is expected to remain stable in the $65 to $70 range and above for the foreseeable future. However, long-term economics indicate that the global market requires trillions of dollars to meet standard decline curves, and budgeting for capital expenditure (capex) spending needs to be done from a conservative perspective. There is also a major downshift from "peak oil" discussions, with renewable projects running into financial headwinds. 

Connect with Michael Tanner at LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeltannersandstone/

Check out The Crude Truth Substack here: https://crudetruth.substack.com/

Don’t miss Tanner’s 30-day oil forecast and insights on why America’s production is keeping prices grounded.

Watch now at www.TheCrudeTruth.com

Real talk. Texas strong.

Highlights of the Podcast

00:01 - Introduction

01:48 - Market Reactions to U.S. Airstrikes and Oil Prices

03:05 - Historical Context Behind Oil Market Volatility

04:47 - Timing of U.S. Airstrikes and Market Strategy

07:03 - The $100 Oil Speculation – Fear vs. Reality

08:40 - Certainty in a Volatile Industry

09:28 - Will Oil Reach $130? Unlikely.

11:56 - U.S. Oil Production Holding Prices in Check

13:31 - Why Mid-Size Operators Struggle While Others Thrive

17:44 - Oil Price Forecast: $60–$65 Range in Next 30 Days

18:46 - Where to Find Michael Tanner