Welcome to our first show of 2016. Over the next few weeks you will hear some of the most respected and highly followed property commentators talk about their views on what is ahead for property in 2016. At the same time we have asked them to reflect back on 2015 and discuss what we have learned that we can carry forward into this year. The years surprises, disappointments and lessons.

You will hear from Dr Andrew Wilson, Michael Yardney, Cate Bakos, Damian Collins, Chris Gray and Andrew Mirams. That is this week - and in the weeks to come there will be lots more.

Also, we will answer your questions, discuss your feedback on how we are going and catch up on the big news stories that influenced the markets last year and what is likely to happen this year.

A reminder to keep your questions coming in because we have 12 month subscriptions to Australasia’s premier property investment magazine – Australian Property Investor – to award to questions we choose as our question of the week.  Send your questions and comments through the website or to me directly at kevin@realestatetalk.com.au

 
Transcripts: 
Cate Bakos
Kevin:  Well, as we launch into a brand-new year, 2016, over the next three shows, we’re going to be pulling in so many of our experts who we’ve featured over the years to give us their impressions of where the 2016 market is going to end up at the end of 2016.

My first guest is Cate Bakos, a buyer’s agent out of Melbourne, Cate Bakos Property.

Hi, Cate, and happy new year to you.

Cate:  Happy new year to you, too, Kevin.

Kevin:  Well, we ended up 2015 in not too bad shape. What do you think we’re going to be saying about the property market this time next year, Cate?

Cate:  Well, have two answers here, Kevin.

Kevin:  Oh, you’re going to hedge your bets, aren’t you?

Cate:  I am. I keep my crystal ball in good shape. I will hedge my bets. I think that the APRA changes have a lot to do with how our market has finished up in 2015 and unless we have some loosening of bank scrutiny and criteria for investment lending, I think that we’ll see a bit more of a divide between our auction clearance rates in our capital cities for houses versus units and also unit price growth.

I’d like to optimistically say that we’ll see a rebound in clearance rates and value growth through our unit market, but the skeptical side of me or the concerned side of me thinks that that divide will become greater.

Kevin:  Yes, okay. We’re going to check in with you, obviously, during the year, but we’ll replay that comment to you this time next year and just see how you faired.

Let’s have a look back at 2015. Were there any surprises for you last year?

Cate:  Yes, there were. We had some enormous and long growth trajectories in our capital cities, particularly Melbourne and Sydney, and the surprises were probably just how tightly the banks pulled in the reins on investment lending.

I know I’ve spoken about this quite a lot, but it was a real game-changer for a lot of investors. We saw some investors pushed out of the market altogether and then others who had their borrowing capacity completely lessened and restricted. That really changed the unit market in particular in our capital cities.

Kevin:  Yes, it changed it for everyone, didn’t it? It made it very, very difficult to work out where the market was going at the latter part of last year. Were there any areas where you thought, “Yes, full marks to me; I got it right in that area”?

Cate:  Yes, absolutely. Every time people went on about a bubble and a crash and a collapse in our housing market, I kept reiterating the reasons why we’re having this steady run, and I also pointed out that we’ve had some really attractive capital growth.

We’ve had rates hovering around 10%, maybe a little bit higher in Melbourne, but when you look at the pre- and post-GFC spikes that we experienced, we had growth figures above 20% back then.