Up + Adam with Adam Montiel

Up + Adam with Adam Montiel


The Punxsutawney of Presidential Elections: Allan Lichtman’s Almost Perfect Forecast

September 17, 2024

In today’s episode of Up+Adam, we’re joined by who some call a luminary in the field of political history and forecasting, Allan Lichtman. Allan is a distinguished professor at American University and the brilliant mind behind the “13 Keys to the White House”—a nonpartisan prediction system that has accurately forecasted 9 out of the last 10 U.S. presidential elections. We’re diving deep into his fascinating methodology, which distills presidential elections down to 13 critical factors that transcend polls and political spin.


We keep it completely nonpartisan as we explore how these keys have unlocked the mysteries of electoral outcomes for nearly four decades. Allan shares his latest prediction for the upcoming election, and while we might take it with the same grain of salt as the groundhog seeing his shadow, it’s intriguing to hear from someone with such an impressive track record. Tune in as we uncover the secrets behind his system and what it might mean for the future of American politics.


Guest Links:

Website: Allan Lichtman at American University

Books by Allan Lichtman:

The Keys to the White House - Purchase on Amazon

X: @AllanLichtman



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