OPEC+ spare capacity is much lower than the market consensus and US shale will also struggle to add extra supply in the second half of 2025 providing upside risk to oil prices, according to Emily Ashford. The Standard Chartered energy analyst tells Petroleum Economist’s Paul Hickin that while tariffs, trade and geopolitics add bearishness, much has been priced in and may be offset by a supply side that is likely to see OPEC+’s members involved in additional voluntary cuts take a hiatus in returning volumes after the summer.