Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Doomberg, author of the Doomberg Substack, for a discussion on the science hype cycle and its impact on investments. The science hype cycle refers to the persistent overhyping of scientific innovations, such as solid state batteries, fusion, room temperature superconductors, and cancer cures, which often take decades to materialize. Despite progress, solid state batteries face inherent challenges due to safety concerns and complexity. Samsung’s recent announcement of a silver-intensive solid state battery may boost silver demand but diminishes its near-term relevance for investors.

Next, the conversation shifts to the automobile industry, focusing on plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). PHEVs reduce regional gasoline consumption efficiently, but China’s competitive edge in manufacturing affordable cars, driven by access to intellectual property, lower labor costs, and less stringent regulations, poses a significant challenge. Consumers favor affordable PHEVs over luxury BEVs, believed to be saturated in demand.

The discussion touches upon the carbon footprint of battery production for electric vehicles and the importance of recycling them. The focus should be on addressing pollution rather than just reducing carbon emissions. China’s lenient environmental regulations give it an edge in industries like magnesium production.

Doomberg advocates continued investment in nuclear, natural gas, and existing hydroelectric power due to their reliability and suitability. He dismisses fusion reactors as unnecessary distractions from proven nuclear technologies. Small modular reactors and thorium reactors hold potential but lag behind large modular reactors, which offer known designs and predictable supply chains.

The conversation addresses the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s implications for energy markets, Russia’s role as a nuclear superpower, and the consequences of NATO involvement. Doomberg expresses concerns about the conflict’s outcome and its impact on gold as a neutral reserve asset amidst geopolitical tensions and the bifurcation of the world into G7 and BRICS. He concludes by advocating for thoughtful consideration of military conflicts and their consequences, and introspection about the wisdom of engaging in war.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:08 – Science Hype Cycle
4:19 – Battery Lifespan, & Silver
8:30 – EV Costs, China, & Hybrids
13:37 – Western EV Demand
14:49 – Carbon Use Comparisons
17:03 – Pollution & Carbon
22:13 – Efficiency & Reuse
26:56 – West GRID Solutions
30:00 – U.S. Election Outcomes
35:06 – New Energy Tech
37:35 – Fusion Technology?
39:30 – SMR & Thorium
41:05 – Nuclear Proliferation
44:50 – Russia & Ukraine
48:30 – Global Bifurcation & Gold
50:52 – Dollar & Military Spending
52:53 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

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• Science innovations often face long development timelines and are overhyped. Examples include solid state batteries and fusion reactors.
  
• China’s competitive edge in automobile manufacturing poses challenges for electric vehicle markets.
  
• Continued investment in reliable energy sources like nuclear, natural gas, and hydroelectric power is advocated.
  

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DoombergT
Website: https://doomberg.substack.com

Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.