Notes from the CIO

Latest Episodes
Changes at the Margin
Seems reasonable to expect that corporate earnings are likely to fall on account of inflation-induced weaker profitability and a slowdown in revenue growth. The growth-stall is likely to stem in part from the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame that margin-
Bad News is Good News?
Many trends suggest progress has been made against inflation, which remains historically elevated across most of the globe. And though mixed in their estimates for how quickly and to what level inflation will fall, survey- and market-based measures for fu
Such Profound Convictions
We were having such a good time, werent we? After dropping more than 20% from the beginning of the year through mid-June, the market staged a convincing rebound as investors seemingly saw fit to look beyond the complexities of central bank policy, maybe
Every Little Bit
With savings, every little bit counts. In our view, one should focus on regular contributions to investment portfolios to build an asset base, in turn allowing investment gains to compound over time and further bolster accumulated assets. In addition to t
Genuinely Patient
Unlike market peaks, when positive sentiment easily supports staying in the game, a market drawdown leads many to question portfolio exposure to equity. Fears of further downside to come not only leave many hesitant to retain an existing strategy; they ca
How Very Smart You Are!
Only once before in the history of the U.S. fixed income market have investment-grade bonds suffered as steep a decline as their current drawdown. The consequence of the impending reversal of stupendously accommodative, COVID-focused monetary policy, rate
On Fiduciary Duty
Given the unpredictability of investment markets and corporate fundamentals, we tend to pay minor heed to generally unreliable guesswork about the future, instead emphasizing the facts of market history. Analyst estimates for corporate earnings provide a
Paths Diverged
The world has been left bereft of safe yield for a decade. And over that time, savers have been required to adjust their perspectives regarding whats possible in terms of income generation from a portfolio. That thinking has led many to pursue yield fr
Braving Future Performance
While its true that we fancy smaller, less-expensive and more profitable companies, those preferences have not been shared among the bulk of investors over the past decade. With relative performance as testament to that fact, investors have been rather m
"Be Cheerful."
Fresh variation in the COVID-19 virus spooked investors over the Thanksgiving holiday. Fears of the virus rather quickly gave ways to fears of missing out on further market gains, then turned about again. The u-turns brought these tenets to mind: Even if