Episode 56 of the NonProphets podcast, in which Atief, Robert, and Scott discuss "the backfire effect"—the fact that people sometimes seem to hold ideas even more firmly after being confronted with evidence they are wrong. We talk about Andrew Gelman's skepticism of the recent New England Journal of Medicine finding that firearm injuries in the US drop 20% while NRA members are attending national meetings (00:50); how skeptical we should be of research that seem to confirm our preconceptions (04:14); whether evidence can change people's minds (15:27); "The Debunking Handbook" techniques for correcting false ideas (18:48); research into how much contrary information it takes to change people's minds (23:21); whether culture or economics determines election results (29:11); how we avoid bias in forecasting and decision-making (31:25); and how we can stay out of Chumptown (39:20). As always, you can reach us at nonprophetspod.wordpress.com or at nonprophetspod@gmail.com. (recorded 4/4/2018)