Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 299

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

NEW PODCAST

Lots of news and information to go over this week.  We talk macro markets and trends but then focus on the CONAB surprise and what it means for grain and oil seed prices for 2021/22 and the 2022/23 marketing years. Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

CONAB SOYBEAN ESTIMATES

CONAB shocked the oilseed market and cut production down to 125.5 MMTs.  The table below is from our team in Brazil.  It is in Portuguese but the six rows are for Acres, Yield, Production, Domestic Use, Exports, and Ending Stocks.  Yields were reduced 12.5% and that took production from 140 to 125 MMTs.  Exports were lowered by 9 MMTs and results in minimal ending stocks for Brazil.  The big question for me is where does the lost 325mm bushels of export demand go if not Brazil?  I’m guessing at least 200mm comes back to the US.

Global stocks or soybeans and oilseeds are tight.  S. American production losses could shift enough export demand to the US that results in minimum pipeline ending stocks. The US needs 90mm+ acres of soybeans and a trendline yield or better to build up very tight stocks levels for 2022/23.  I still like buying call spreads and selling put spreads for both old crop and new crop soybeans.

Click here to open an account with Craig Turner & StoneX today!

Drought Monitor

Below are the drought monitors for the US and Canada.  The US western corn belt (WCB) is dry and need precipitation.  The SW needs it the most.  Canada is also dry from Saskatoon to Calgary/Edmonton.  This year we need as much US (corn, soybeans, wheat) and Canadian (canola, wheat) acres and production as possible.  There is still a lot of time for conditions to improve but things are not off to a great start.  Prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and canola will most likely remain elevated until more is known about N. American acres and yield potential.  Given the tight stock levels, drought conditions, and demand levels, our bias is bullish on breaks.

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast

Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample

Contact Daniels Trading

To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.

Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2022 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.