Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 298

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NEW PODCAST

The Bank of England raised rates this week to 0.50% on a 5-4 vote.  The four no votes wanted rates to increase to 0.75%.  The EU has changed its tune and is now considering more hawkish monetary policy for 2022.  We go over the macro markets, the Feb WASDE, and what we think about wheat, corn and soybeans.  Make sure you take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast!

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WASDE ESTIMATES

The USDA will release their February WASDE on Wednesday, 2/9 at 11am CT. Brazil soybean production estimates range from 126.5 MMT to 137.5 MMT.  Brazil corn along with Arg corn and soybeans are all expected to be lower by about 2 MMTs.  CONAB will also be updating the market on Brazil crop production next week.  Traders are speculating CONAB may get aggressive with production cuts in order to help the government start to determine farmer aid packages.

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SOYBEANS

Below are my estimates for soybeans and what the balance sheet could look like with a 20 MMT loss in South America.  It basically puts US Ending Stocks at pipeline minimums for 2021-2022 (old crop) and 2022-2023 (new crop) marketing years.  Only 90mm+ acres and a trendline yield or better this summer gets soybeans back to adequate stock levels for 2022-23.

CORN

Below are my estimates for corn and I included a scenario of S. America losing 10 MMT of production.  Ending stocks at 1.3 and 1.2 billion is bullish but not as bullish as the soybean example.  Corn needs 91mm acres and a 180bpa (trendline and record) just to keep pace with demand.  Lets hope farmers are able to plant the acres and get the fertilizer to max yields.

WHEAT

Below are my estimates for All Wheat.  The US needs 48mm acres and a yield of 49 bpa just to keep stocks about the same levels year-over-year.  The US has become the residual supplier of wheat to the world.  Profitability per acre has favored corn and soybeans for much of the corn belt since the introduction of RFS.  We are finally starting to see trend in increased acres for wheat.  This could be the year when acres and a trend line yield can keep ending stocks from going lower year-over-year.

 

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If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

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About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.