Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 291

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast

In this week’s podcast we go over what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell meant when he told Congress inflation is no longer transitory.  If inflation is not transitory then it is structural.  Powell acknowledged the “risk of higher inflation has increased” and now the market will expect the Fed to accelerate their tapering along with two or three interest rate increases in 2022.  We also go over our views on the energy and ag markets, why we like old crop corn and soybean oil, but are sellers of new crop wheat.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast!

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

Energy

Crude Oil found support today just above $62, which was support tin May and August this year.  Crude was able to trade about $5 off the lows at the close, and this was after OPEC announced they would pump more oil.  This type of buying at a major support level, in the face of bearish news, is usually the sign of a low.  Crude needs to hold $62 or it could go down to the March lows of $57.

Continuous Daily Crude Oil Chart

Grains & Oilseeds

United Airlines flew a 737 yesterday from Chicago to DC with one of the engines running 100% on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), aka biofuel.  This is another example of why I am bullish vegetable oil (soybean and canola) for the foreseeable future. It would be nice to see the EPA comment on biodiesel mandates but that might not happen until President Biden gets his Build Back Better deal sorted.

Corn is currently in a range between $5.50 and $5.95.  For corn to break out over $6.00 there has to be a real S. American weather threat.  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released a report warning the market of a potential drought in Jan/Feb due to La Nina conditions.  I find it hard to put a lot of stock in long range weather forecasts but this is a story to follow. US and global corn stocks are tight and a major weather issue in Argentina and S. Brazil could send corn over $6.20 if the market thinks S. Am production could come down 5% or more.

I like buying the May Corn $6.00/$6.70 call spread and selling the $5.50/$5.00 put spread for around even money.  If the market tanks then we have limited risk to the downside. If there are real issues in S. America or we have lower than expected US corn acre due to the fertilizer situation, we can always roll up the $6.70 leg on the call spread.

Continuous Daily Corn Chart

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast

Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

Subscribe to Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast
Learn More
View a Sample

Contact Daniels Trading

To open an account or request more information, contact us at (800) 800-3840 or info@danielstrading.com and mention Craig Turner.

Risk Disclosure

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI does business as Daniels Trading/Top Third/Futures Online. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

© 2021 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.