Play Turner’s Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 285
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In today’s podcast we go over the Sept WASDE report and take a look at the numbers for corn, soybeans and wheat.  The report was neutral for the board overall. The September WASDE is usually the turning point when the market stops focusing heavily on supply and turns its attention to demand.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
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Sept WASDE Neutral
The WASDE report today was fairly neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat.  Below are the results.
CORN – new crop ending stocks at 1.404 billion is very close to the 1.382 average analyst guess.  Old crop carryout increased by 70 million due to a 30mm loss in exports and 40mm loss in ethanol.  New Crop acres up 600K was expected and yield increased 1.7 bpa to 176.3.  New crop carryout was higher due to larger production but the USDE did increase exports and feed 75mm.  This is neutral for corn.  We think the market now starts to transition from focusing on supply and starts to look more into US demand.  For corn to rally we need to see the Gulf get back online for corn exports.
SOYBEANS – New crop ending stocks at 185 million bushels is close enough to the 190 average trade estimate.  Acres came down over 300K and the trade was looking for a slight increase.  Yields increased 0.6 bpa to 50.6. The net result is a 30mm increase in ending stocks from 165mm to 185mm.  This was neutral for soybeans.  We expect the market to now focus more on demand (domestic crush and exports to China) going forward.
WHEAT – US wheat numbers were barely changed. The only thing of note was the global stocks increasing 3.3 mm mt due to increased production out of Australia and India.
SUMMARY – Neutral report and we should start to transition from a market focused on supply news to a market focused on demand news.  Demand for soybeans seems constant from China and will be supportive for weeks to come if demand stays steady.  The corn market needs the Gulf to get operational again for export demand
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