Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 227
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

New Podcast
I am working from home while IL has a Stay at Home order in effect until April 30.  My office phone 312-706-7610 will roll over to my home office if you call my trade desk.  This week we go over the the latest jobless claims and implied unemployment rate.  We take a look into the energy, grain, and livestock markets too. Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!
If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!
Macro Markets
Weekly initial unemployment claims were 5.2 million this week, bringing the four week total to 22 million!  This implies the unemployment rate is over 15%.  The next monthly unemployment report is May 8th (for the month of April) and their is a chance unemployment is 20% by the end of the month.  Below is good chart of the initial claims from CNBC.

The Small Business Loan Program was only funded with $349 billion out of the $2 trillion stimulus package.  Small business employ about 50% of the US workforce. That loan program is out of money and it will probably be the next part of the economy that gets further monetary support.
CNBC | Small Business Loan Program Is Now Out of Money
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 
Energy
Below is a great visual of global crude oil demand as a result of coronavirus.  April will see a demand decrease of 30 million barrels/day.  May is estimated to be around a 26 million deficit before the curve starts to recover significantly.  Keep in mind OPEC+ is only cutting production by 10mm barrels/day so we don’t it an equilibrium and start working off over supply until July.  Until then expect the front months of crude to be in the $20s and the back months in the $30s.
If the demand growth is anything close to this chart then the lows are probably in for crude oil and we would expect a rally to start in May.

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!
Ag
As we talked about on the podcast, I think there is a lot of value in Dec LC under $100 and depending on where soybeans in a few weeks, I might want to be long beans heading into the May 12th WASDE.
As for corn, I think FND for May Corn is going to put a lot of selling pressure on that contract.  If we get a rally in the next few trading sessions I like selling May and being short into FND.  When we do get to FND I want to exit May and if prices have fallen steep enough we may look at buying some July and look for a short covering pop or a spring planting rally.
If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 
About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter