Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 196
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New Podcast!
In our latest podcast we go over our thoughts on the macro economy and why we like gold, the stocks market and the US Dollar.  Then we talk about how grains typically make a seasonal low at the end of August and why we like the corn and soybeans in Sept/Oct.  Next up is livestock and how we want to play cattle and hogs.  Finally we talk about the reversal in crude oil calendar spreads and how we want to get involved.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast!
Grains
Grains tend to make a seasonal bottom at the end of August as old crop needs to be sold to make way for new crop.  Production also has a good chance of being lower than what the USDA is currently forecasting.  I think the CBOT comes under pressure between now and First Notice Day (Aug 30).  After that the market will pay more attention to the possibility of a smaller crop and frost risk.  Below are my Supply and Demand scenarios for corn and soybeans based on various yield possibilities.

Livestock
Cattle has been taken to the shed ever since the Tyson plant caught fire in Garden City, KS.  Packer margins are incredibly profitable and everyone in the industry has an incentive to get fat cattle in the supply chain.  August and Oct cattle may have a tough time over the near term, but I like Dec LC.  I like futures and call spreads.  It is only a matter of time before the cattle industry gets back to capacity.
I also think Hogs are overdone and should find support soon.  There is an MRCI seasonal trade in Oct vs Dec Hogs that we will be looking at in Turner’s Take Market Alert
Dec Live Cattle

Oct vs Dec Hogs

Energy
I follow a lot of Crude spreads and it looks like Dec 19 vs March 20 hit a long time resistance area and reversed on the charts.  Seasonally Dec tends to lose out to march between now and Thanksgiving.  I think the trend for this spread will be bearish this autumn.
Dec 19 vs March 20 Crude Oil

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
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Twitter: @Turners_Take
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