Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 194
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Corn and soybeans both broke through support today.  The demand bears have been in full control of the market while the supply bulls are in retreat.  In this podcast we go over the bull and the bear cases.  What each of them thinks and why.  Below are the Supply and Demand tables I talk about on the podcast.  I’ll add some color to the tables below but take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast for a full explanation.
Corn Supply & Demand
The blue column is old crop. The first yellow column on the left is the July WASDE.  The next column with 89.5mm planted and a 166 yield is the bear case.  The last column with 85mm planted and a 163 yield is the bull case.  There is a HUGE difference between a 2.0 billion carryout and 1.2 billion.  It is probably the difference between $3.70 and $4.50 corn.

Soybean Supply & Demand
The blue column is old crop. The first yellow column on the left is the July WASDE.  The next column with 81mm planted and a 48 yield is the bear case.  The last column with 78mm planted and a 47.5 yield is the bull case.  Some may argue the bulls think yields are lower than 47.5.  That might be correct.  For each bushel we go lower from 47.5 you can take off about 75mm bushels from ending stocks.
If carryout is 800mm then I think we are at $8.40 or lower by harvest.  If the carryout is 600mm then prices are around $9.  For prices to get to the $9.50 yields probably need to come down to 45 or 46 bpa.  For soybeans to hit $10 and higher, yields need to be in the low 40s.

 
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If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!
 
 
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
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