Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 181
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New Podcast!
In our latest podcast we go over the impressive US jobs numbers, the weather market developing in corn planting, and how the funds are trapped long in live cattle.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!
Macro Markets
The economy created 263,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate is at 3.6%, the lowest since December of 1969! I like getting long the Emini S&P or Micro on the dips. Now that the Micro will start trading on Monday we are going to do more swing and position trading in the S&P 500.  Margins for the Micro should start around $700 and each point in the S&P will be worth $5.  There is a possibility we could go another leg higher.  The micro ES is worth about $15K of the spider.  100 pts is $500.  This is a very efficient use of capital for swing and position trading the S&P 500.
Reuters | US Job Growth Surges
Continuous Emini S&P 500

Ag Markets
The funds were still long 125K contracts as of Tuesday according to the latest CoT report.  The funds are trapped long and the market fundamentals are turning bearish.  We have plenty of supply, feedlots are looking to get rid of cattle, and the packers have all the pricing power.  I like getting short on rallies.  If we can pop up to the 113 area again in August LC then we will look at selling again.  If you don’t want to wait for a rally then I would look at the Oct 19 vs Feb 20 bear spread.  It is an MRCI trade and I wrote about it in the last Turner’s Take Market Alert.
How low can LC go?  The funds are probably still long 100,00 contract.  We are at some good support levels now but as we have seen with Wheat and Soybeans, the money flow can take this contracts down (or up) farther then many of us expect
August Live Cattle

Kansas City vs Chicago wheat are getting to levels that I did not expect either.  July KC was 40 under at one point this week.  I know the KC crop looks good and Chicago is having some problems, but I think 40 under is a 30 year spread low.  If the funds need to blow out of KC Wheat, this spread could go a lot higher.
July KC vs July Chicago Wheat

 
 

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter
If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!
While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers. Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets? Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
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