The USDA released their May WASDE yesterday and the results were mixed.  On the surface the report was bullish for new crop corn but the market was looking for a bullish number.  New crop corn ending stocks were 1.682 billion bushels, which is 500mm bushels lower than the old crop ending stock estimates.  The May WASDE showed that the US will pick up corn exports due to losses in Arg and Brazil but in the back end of the marketing year the USDA thinks the US will have stiff competition from the Ukraine and Russia.
Soybeans were bullish at first glance with a new crop carryout of 415.  The problem is the market things new crop acres will expand and the export number is too high.  We have about 4mm mt of soybeans that are booked but not shipped to China due to the tariffs.  We think these sales get cancelled and Brazil gets the business.  That is 100mm+ bushels that comes back to the US.  Old crop carryout could be closer to 600mm and new crop could be 500mm with a trend line yield and 90mm acres.
While the podcast does not have specific actionable trading recommendations, we do publish them in Turner’s Take Market Alert for spec traders and Turner’s Take Ag Marketing for hedgers.  Want to know what to look for in the commodity futures markets?  Take a listen to Turner’s Take podcast!
Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing http://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Futures Spreads http://www.turnerstake.com
312-706-7610
cturner@danielstrading.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take
 
 


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