The Denver real estate market is experiencing its most significant inventory surge in over a decade, with active listings nearly doubling year-over-year while revealing stark differences between single-family homes and attached properties. April 2025 data shows we’ve reached inventory levels not seen since 2011-2012, creating a complex market environment that technically remains a seller’s market by traditional metrics but feels increasingly balanced on the ground.

Episode Overview

In our monthly market update podcast, I sat down with Brandon from Keyrenter Denver, Troy from Nova Home Loans, and Jeff from Envision Advisors to analyze the April 2025 Denver Metro Association of Realtors data. Our discussion revealed fascinating contradictions between market metrics and real-world experiences, with inventory reaching nearly 12,000 active listings—a 71% increase from the previous year. We explored where different property types sit in the traditional four-phase real estate cycle, examined the stark performance differences between detached homes and condos, and analyzed the ongoing challenges in commercial real estate and multifamily sectors.

https://youtu.be/B-_bQAj0cKY Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction
(02:15) Inventory Surge Hits Highest Levels Since 2012
(06:42) Single Family Versus Condo Price Divergence
(11:18) Real Estate Market Cycle Phase Discussion
(18:35) Multifamily Vacancy Rates Peak in Denver
(23:47) Commercial Office Market Downtown Challenges
(28:13) Interest Rate Environment and Federal Outlook
(31:45) Market Predictions and Inventory Growth Projections

Inventory Surge Signals Market Transition

The most striking aspect of April’s data is the dramatic inventory increase, bringing us to levels not experienced in over thirteen years.

“This is by far the highest it’s been the last 10 years,” I noted while reviewing the data. “I think it’s like 2011, 2012, since we’re around this inventory level.”

• Active listings reached nearly 12,000 properties at the end of April, representing a 71% increase from 6,900 listings at the same time last year.
• Days on market increased from 30 to 37 days year-over-year, still well below the 80-100 day averages we saw during the Great Financial Crisis.

This inventory growth is creating more balance in the market, though we remain technically in seller’s market territory. The historical balanced market threshold sits around 15,000-16,000 active listings for the Denver metro area, meaning we need approximately 4,000-5,000 more properties to reach true equilibrium.

The Great Divergence: Single-Family vs. Attached Properties

Perhaps the most telling story in our market analysis is the stark performance difference between detached homes and condos or townhomes.

“The one I’m surprised on, actually, is the detached single family houses are still flat,” Jeff observed. “So people see the headlines, the market’s gone down. If you look at closed median price for detached, it’s up 0.68%. So that tells you even in the current market conditions, single families are still the most desirable asset to buy and sell.”

• Detached homes showed minimal price movement with average prices down just 1.4% year-over-year and median prices up 0.7%.
• Attached properties (condos and townhomes) experienced significant price declines of 5% on average prices and 6% on median prices, coupled with a 13% drop in transaction volume.

The primary drivers behind this divergence include ongoing HOA challenges, insurance concerns, and financing difficulties for attached properties. Many condo complexes are struggling to meet conventional financing guidelines, limiting buyer options and creating downward pressure on values.

Navigating the Four-Phase Real Estate Cycle

During our discussion, we attempted to place the Denver market within the traditional four-phase real estate cycle: recovery, expansion, hyper supply, and recession.

“I think it’s kind of more balanced. So I think it’s in between phase two and phase three,” Jeff suggested. “That demand…people have so much equity. This is not 2009 where you have this oversupply. So you have all these people that could sell tomorrow, cash out. But what do they buy next? Now their mortgage goes from 2,000 bucks to 4,000 bucks for the move-up buyer.”

• The “rate lock effect” is keeping many potential sellers in their homes, as approximately 40% of homes nationally now have no mortgage, and many others carry rates below 4%.
• Single-family homes appear to be experiencing a much flatter cycle curve than traditional commercial real estate, largely due to the unique financing dynamics created by historically low COVID-era interest rates.

This creates an interesting dynamic where we have willing sellers with substantial equity who choose not to move due to the significant increase in borrowing costs, effectively constraining supply despite market conditions that would typically encourage more listings.

Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily Challenges

While residential real estate shows resilience, commercial and multifamily sectors are experiencing more significant stress.

“Denver multifamily vacancy peaking last quarter…right around 11 and a half, 12% with vacancy starting to soften here,” I explained while reviewing CoStar data. “In 2024, we delivered 5% of all the apartments that exist in Denver.”

• Downtown Denver office vacancy rates have reached 35%, the highest levels since tracking began in 2006, with some speculation that rates may match the 30% levels seen during the 1990 oil and gas crisis.
• Multifamily rents are down 2.9% year-over-year, with Class A properties leading the decline as new supply continues to hit the market.

The multifamily sector appears to be firmly in the recession phase of the real estate cycle, with banks increasingly looking to move distressed properties off their books after extending loan terms for the past few years.

Interest Rate Environment and Market Outlook

Interest rates remain a critical factor in market dynamics, with current rates in the mid-to-high 6% range for 30-year fixed mortgages.

“Still kind of flat, you know, from what we’ve been seeing. So mid high sixes on a 30 year fix,” Troy reported. “I’m still hopeful we’ll see some better rates, but I’m not counting on it.”

• Consensus forecasts suggest rates may reach the low 6% range (around 6.2-6.3%) by Q1 2026, which could unlock more inventory as the psychological barrier between current rates and existing mortgage rates narrows.
• The traditional refinancing threshold of rates dropping to around 5% would likely trigger significant market movement, but current economic conditions make this scenario unlikely in the near term.

Conclusion

April 2025 data reveals a Denver real estate market in transition, with growing inventory creating more opportunities for buyers while single-family homes maintain their value better than attached properties. The unique dynamics created by COVID-era low interest rates are fundamentally changing how we think about traditional real estate cycles, creating a more prolonged and flatter adjustment period than historical precedent might suggest.

For investors, this environment presents opportunities in the single-family space as competition from traditional homebuyers remains constrained by affordability concerns. However, careful analysis of property type, location, and financing is more critical than ever given the significant performance divergence we’re witnessing across different market segments.

Stay tuned for our May data analysis, where we’ll examine whether inventory continues its upward trajectory and how the ongoing market transition affects pricing and transaction activity. Subscribe to our monthly market update podcasts to stay informed about the evolving Colorado real estate landscape.

Links from Podcast

Keyrenter Property Management Denver: https://keyrenterdenver.com/

Nova Home Loans: https://troyhowell.novahomeloans.com

Connect with our Guests:

Brandon Scholten: brandon@keyrenterdenver.com

Troy Howell: troy.howell@novahomeloans.com

• LinkedIn: Troy Howell

Jeff White: Jeff@envisionrea.com

• LinkedIn: Jeff White

Market Updates:

• Denver April 2025 Real Estate Market Updates
• Colorado Springs & Pueblo April 2025 Real Estate Market Updates

Who is Keyrenter?

Keyrenter Property Management Denver provides rental solutions for homeowners and real estate investors in the metro area who are interested in transforming their properties into passive income. It offers various services, from property marketing and thorough applicant screening to tenant placement and 24/7 maintenance services. Keyrenter Denver’s team of experts can take the clients’ burden of managing their rental off their hands so they can get back to what matters to them.

Who is Nova Home Loans?

For over 40 years, we’ve been focused on helping homeowners find the perfect loan to fit their financial needs and personal goals. Working with NOVA is a personalized experience from initial application to final loan closing and beyond. We will be with you every step of the way toward successful homeownership. Start working with NOVA & Troy Howell today!

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