Degenerate Business School
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Latest Episodes
FTX and the Crypto Winter
The lurid collapse of FTX and with it Crytpo sentiment the world over bring to mind an old adage in high Finance. When the tide goes out, we find out who was really swimming naked. And it turns out, in the far off Bahamas, Sam Bankman-Fried was not only s
We Can't Stop, Won't Stop says the Fed
Last week, Jerome Powell took the mic. And with the mystic language of macroeconomic policy said the equivalent of: we can't stop, won't stop, murdering your equity portfolio until inflation improves. Makes sense. The last best hope of a near te
Earnings Season and the Last Great Age of Oil
Earnings season began this week with mixed results. And if there are two companies that tell the story of these times, they are Snapchat (SNAP) and Schlumberger (SLB). Snapchat you surely know. Once the darling of young people sending ephemera to each oth
Inflation Week! Plus Elon is a Bond Villain
This week inflation came in hot versus consensus. And while we have past the peak of so-called headline inflation, with energy costs abating somewhat, CORE inflation is still accelerating. Rent costs in particular are running wild. What does it all mean?
The Looming Sovereign Debt Crisis
Every once in a while, we get to the point in financial markets where all that matters is...wait for it...you guessed it...BOND MARKET LIQUIDITY. In the simplest terms, there are not enough willing buyers to scoop up US treasuries. Or any government bond
The Resource Apocalypse?
This week the European energy crisis took center stage on Finance Twitter. Is this right and truly checkmate for Europe? With Vladimir Putin throttling natural gas, and no longer under the pretense of scheduled maintenance, what does the winter hold for,
No Pivot for You!
With the eyes of Finance Twitter fixed on Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell coolly reminded the investing public that a pivot is not in the offing. And if there is no self evident pivot, then the fever dream that was this summer's bear market rally might r
Tail Risk in Taiwan
Last week, the Finance Twitter newsfeed produced an embarrassment of riches. Just to enumerate the highlights:Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and sent the CCP into a frenzyThe jobs report blasted consensus, making way for more Fed hawkishnessAmazon bought Ro
Bear Market Rally or Powell Pivot 2?
What do we make of this rally? Is it a 2005 Donovan McNabb pump fake? That is, a bear market rally? Or the beginning of a pivot to accommodative policy once more? On Wednesday Jerome Powell said, and didn't say, just enough to prolong a run up in ris
Inflation is the worst
This week the Consumer Price Index, the inflation measure that now governs the market, came in higher than consensus at 9.1%. And yet the 10 year treasury yield didn't move. And the equity market chopped sideways.What do we make of this? According to