A recent Politico article (5/20/22) had the headline, “How Gen X Became the Trumpiest Generation.” Yet the article’s focus seems to be mostly on Iowa state Rep. Cherielynn (“Cherie”) Westrich, a former rock singer who got into politics at age 50 as a solid supporter of Donald Trump.

The strawman mystery that informs the story is: How in the world did a former rock singer become a “solidly conservative representative from blue-collar southeast Iowa who is pro-gun and anti–vaccine mandate”?

Apparently, answering that question by just focusing on her “unusual trajectory” in life was not deemed sufficiently interesting for Politico. Suggesting that she is also representative of the “politics of people in her generation” apparently enhances, or perhaps justifies, her elevation into the national conversation.

And yet…

If Cherielynn Westrich is your case study, Generation X supposedly became the “Trumpiest generation” Politico (5/20/22) by not paying much attention at all to politics until 2016.

The irony in the story is that while Westrich, born in 1966, qualifies as Gen X (see chart below), she doesn’t really fit the profile of a Gen Xer.

The assumption of Generational (or Cohort) Theory as it applies to politics is that most people become of age politically about the time when  they first vote. Politico cites an article that holds that events when people are aged 14–24 have the most lasting impact, and suggests that 18–19 are the most impressionable ages.

The Politico story relies on that theory when it describes Westrich’s coming of age:

The first presidential election she would have been eligible to vote in was Reagan’s 1984 landslide, and she would have come of age at time in which there were few strong personalities defining the Democratic Party.

But Westrich, by her own account, was oblivious to anything political for the first five decades of her life. She joined a rock band in her early 20s, and later became a  “quasi-celebrity as a mechanic in Overhaulin’, a reality television show.” Her first introduction to politics, the article informs us, didn’t come until 2016, when “she was coaxed into volunteering for Trump’s general election campaign by a friend.”

Thus, unlike most Gen Xers, her entry into political awareness was quite late and not at all in the glow of Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” landslide. In fact, as reported, “she couldn’t even recall any candidate who had ever really inspired her before Trump.”

Given her idiosyncratic, late-blooming political background, it’s a mystery why Politico tried to showcase Westrich as the poster child of her generation.

But if that part of the article is dubious, its characterization of Gen X as the “Trumpiest generation” is even more questionable.

According to the standard definition, Generation X is people born from 1965–80—whereas the study Politico relies on to deem them the “Trumpiest” looks at the voting records of people born from 1956–80.

First, it’s important to note that Politico never defines “Trumpiest,” although it’s clear from the context that the author merely means “the most Republican.” Using Trump’s name may draw more readers, but it misleads about the actual political measure being used, which is essentially party identification.

To substantiate its so-called “Trumpiest” claim, Politico refers to a 2019 article by Columbia University scholars that examines the changing party identification of voters among different generations. But the definition of “generation” in that article varies substantially from the standard definition noted earlier, and the names it uses for each generation are also different.

The article classifies people born from 1956–1980 as Reagan Conservatives. That 25-year period overlaps 16 years with the standard definition of Gen X (people born in 1965–1980), plus nine additional years (1956–1964) of  the 19 years commonly referred to as the Boomer generation.

The scholars made a deliberate choice to expand their definition of “generation” so it could reflect the long period of Republican presidential dominance. Thus, it would not be surprising if the Reagan Conservatives had the highest percentage of Republican Party identifiers. It was designed to be just that.

Yet, even then, the chart on page 17 of the article shows that Reagan Conservatives were only a little more Republican than Eisenhower Republicans—for about ten years (1990 to 2000). And by 2010 until the end of the study, it was the latter group that was a tad “Trumpier” than the Reagan Conservatives.

The Politico article seems not to have noticed the difference between the standard definition of generation and the one used by the scholars, even referring to the latter as Gen X, when neither the name nor the time frame were what the scholars specified.

To make Gen X look “Trumpiest,” it helps to leave out 39% of the generation (Pew, 3/16/18).

The Politico article also ignores the limits of the scholars’ article, which very explicitly stated that the analysis was based on white voters only. Among people of color, the article stated, the model did not work so well.

Politico acknowledges the results were based on white voters, but then seems to forget that caveat in the subsequent analysis, where the author continues to refer to the study’s findings as though they apply to all of Gen X.  Yet, as of 2017, Pew reported that white people constituted just 61% of Gen X and 72% of Boomers. Among whites of this period, perhaps, can be found the most Republicans. But ignoring more than one third of adults who are non-white certainly undermines the more general conclusion.

The article did note:

In a poll released in late April by Marist/NPR that separated voters by generation, Generation X had the highest level of disapproval for Biden and were the generation most likely to say they would vote for a Republican candidate in the midterms if they were held that day.

These two examples would seem to substantiate the author’s theme (as the poll included all people in each generational grouping), but most of the other measures in the same poll suggest that Gen X is neither the most Republican nor the most Democratic in their views. On Biden’s handling of the economy, his favorable rating, Trump’s favorable rating, and on which party can best handle various issues, Gen Xers find themselves mostly in the middle among generations.

Despite their alleged “Trumpiest” orientation, large pluralities of Gen Xers think Democrats would be better at handling several flash point issues that separate Republicans from Democrats: LGBTQ rights (44% to 18%—a net positive for Democrats of 26 points), climate change (+23 points), abortion (+6 points) and voting rights (+4 points). On the issues where Gen Xers prefer Republicans to Democrats, they are not the strongest GOP supporters.

It also helps to ignore any data that contradicts your thesis (Pew, 3/1/18).

The NPR poll previously cited by Politico showed Gen Xers favoring Republican candidates for Congress over Democrats by a nine-point margin, the highest among the four generational groups. It’s not clear if that difference would be found in other polls, given the wide variation in poll results on the generic ballot.

But even if Gen X is the most Republican for this year’s midterms, Pew Research—using the standard definition of generation—reports significant variation within generations from one midterm to another. Gen X favored Democrats in 2018 by 10 points, and in 2014 by nine points. Only Millennials were more Democratic in 2018, while tying Gen Xers for first in 2014. Going back to 2010, the Silent Generation has been the “Trumpiest” on this measure. Now, in 2022, the NPR poll shows the Silent Generation as the most Democratic.

Generational (cohort) theory as applied to politics posits that birth year has a consistent and lasting effect on people’s party orientation. If that is the case, then the variations in party orientation found by Pew over the past several midterm elections should not have happened.

It’s not that generational theory is wrong. It’s rather that many additional factors contribute to how people think and vote. The Politico article shoehorned data to make it appear that birth year has the dominant influence on party identification. But a wider examination of generational views shows how misleading that conclusion is.

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