The Atlanta housing market continues to shift, shaped by migration trends, job growth, supply dynamics and affordability challenges. Cara Lavender, senior research manager with John Burns Research and Consulting, joins Host Carol Morgan on the Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio podcast to discuss the factors shaping today’s housing market and her predictions for 2026.

Is Atlanta’s growth slowing?

A recent headline suggested that Atlanta’s migration-fueled growth streak had ended. Lavender disagrees, explaining that the city’s growth is smaller post-pandemic, yet still increasing.

“While the migration into Atlanta has undoubtedly slowed, and we’re not seeing the same type of influx that we did three years ago, we’re not seeing this exodus from the state or from the metro,” said Lavender. “We’re still seeing positive year-over-year [population] growth.”

Household migration data, a better indicator of housing demand than census population figures, indicates a 2% net inflow of households into Atlanta as of June 2025. Another trend that Lavender points out is residents settling beyond the defined Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) into counties such as Hall and Jackson, which still function as part of the metro housing market.

What about job growth and high-income employment in metro Atlanta?

Like much of the nation, Atlanta’s job growth has slowed, while its metro area remains relatively healthy:

• Overall job growth is positive at about 1% year-over-year.
• High-income jobs, which are closely tied to new home demand, declined from 2023 to 2024, but are now trending slightly positive again

While the short-term outlook feels choppy, these fundamentals keep Atlanta positioned well for long-term strength.

“We’d love to see it more positive in a healthy environment, but we’re still seeing some solid job growth in Atlanta,” said Lavender. “It’s one of those long-term fundamentals that I think allows people to be more bullish about Atlanta.”

How is consumer hesitation affecting housing supply and pricing?

Atlanta currently has 4.3 months of resale supply, up from under four months at the start of 2025. Still, Lavender explains that home values are down about 2% year-over-year as buyer hesitancy grows. The economy, interest rates and job stability are just a few topics on the minds of today’s homebuyers.

Atlanta is the nation’s third-largest new home market by community count, so how does the resale market stack up? Resale homes are actually dominating the market, making up 83% of recent closings. Lavender emphasizes that both new and resale sectors are still rated “slow” by John Burns Consulting.

Lavender said, “Builders are working incredibly hard, and resale sellers are starting to make some price movements to get people across the line.”

Builders report prices down about 2% year-over-year, driven by incentives like rate buy-downs and closing cost coverage. On the other hand, nearly 40% of resale listings need major updates, which pushes some buyers toward turnkey new construction.

Is it more affordable to rent or buy a home in Atlanta?

Affordability remains the biggest barrier for many households, and the Atlanta housing market is not making it easy for them to buy. From 2017 to 2019, owning a starter home cost about $100 to $200 more per month than renting an apartment. Today, that premium has ballooned to over $1,000 per month, keeping many renters from making the leap into homeownership. As a result, the build-to-rent sector continues to grow nationwide, while owner-household growth has stalled.

What’s next for the Atlanta housing market?

Homebuyers can expect a slow housing market through 2025 and into 2026. Recent interest rate cuts will help, though they’re unlikely to unleash a flood of pent-up demand without stronger consumer confidence and job security.

“We need consumers to feel more confident in their jobs and more confident in the US economy to be making these decisions,” said Lavender. “We also have builders that have been buying down into the sub-six, even sub-five, for some time now, and those incentives aren’t going anywhere, at least through the remainder of 2025. Mortgage rate movement will ease some of the cost pressure on the margin side for those builders.”

Lavender assures homebuyers that the long-term outlook remains positive. As in-migration continues and job growth steadies, she projects 2027 and 2028 as years poised for stronger growth once today’s uncertainties work through the system. Tune into the full episode to learn more about Atlanta housing market trends. For more information about John Burns Research and Consulting, visit https://jbrec.com/.

About John Burns Research and Consulting

John Burns Research and Consulting provides data-driven insights across every housing sector, including new home construction, resale, single-family rental and build-to-rent. It helps companies make informed decisions and mitigate risk in order to identify opportunities in a complex market. From M&A projects to consumer surveys, the firm covers every aspect of the housing industry.

Podcast Thanks

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About Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio

Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio, presented by Denim Marketing, highlights the movers and shakers in the Atlanta real estate industry – the home builders, developers, Realtors and suppliers working to provide the American dream for Atlantans. For more information on how you can be featured as a guest, contact Denim Marketing at 770-383-3360 or fill out the Atlanta Real Estate Forum contact form. Subscribe to the Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio podcast on iTunes, and if you like this week’s show, be sure to rate it. Atlanta Real Estate Forum Radio was recently honored on FeedSpot’s Top 100 Atlanta Podcasts, ranking 16th overall and number one out of all ranked real estate podcasts.