On February 1st, 2021 the military of Myanmar, called the Tatmadaw, launched a coup against the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on paper thin claims of massive voter fraud. The people of Myanmar have decisively rejected the coup, with protests organizing almost immediately after the coup, with hundreds of thousands of people of all ethnicities regularly gathering to demand the Tatmadaw return to the barracks. The military has cracked down, with at least 18 people killed by the armed forced on February 27th. The situation is rapidly changing on the ground, and todays podcast episode aims to give a historical background to Myanmar’s conflicts rather than an analysis of the current situation. I will discuss Myanmar’s long running ethnic conflict, the overwhelming force and power of the Tatmadaw, and the rise of a more liberal society in the last decade.

Ethnic Insurgencies in Myanmar

From the late 17th century, the Konbaung Dynasty rapidly expanded a state based around the Irrawady delta and the Bamar people, forming the basis of the modern state of Myanmar. However, this state building project was interrupted by the British Empire, which in a series of wars conquered and absorbed Myanmar into the British Raj. The new state created by the British marginalized the once dominant Bamar majority, who make up roughly 62% of modern Myanmar’s population. Vast numbers of Chinese and Indian immigrants flooded into Myanmar, with these minorities dominating the cities, business and government. Moreover, the armed forces were dominated by ethnic minorities such as the Chin, Kachin and especially the Karen. Unsurprisingly, the Japanese invasion of Myanmar during World War II was initially seen as an opportunity to end not just British imperialism, but an opportunity to assert the rights of the Bamar majority as well. Japanese brutality caused even the Bamar to revolt. As World War II ended, a pan-ethnic movement led by Aung San, father of Aung San Suu Kyi and the founding father of Myanmar, took power and established a fragile democracy in the country.

Myanmar broke into war almost immediately after independence. The Kuomitang invaded Myanmar hoping to create a base of operation to retake China in the north of Myanmar, a communist insurgency calling for revolution emerged in the countryside, and the Karens attempted to violently carve out an independent state. The military, which became in increasingly Bamar institution after independence, launched a coup to restore order. However, the situation became only more violent after the coup, as other ethnic groups such as the Chin, Kachin and Shan joined the Karen in revolt. Armed groups with tens of thousands soldiers grabbed large swathes of territories in the mountaineous interior of the country. The armed forces responded with scorched earth tactics, making regular use of forced labor, destruction of villages, and civilian massacres. While the Rohingya genocide is the best known abuse of human rights committed by the Tatmadaw, it was part of a broader pattern of extreme brutality.

A complex political economy emerged in the border regions of Myanmar. From 1989 onwards, a new military regime took a more pragmatic approach to the insurgents. The government began signing truces with various insurgent groups, in order to concentrate its strength on others. Both the Tatmadaw and the ethnic insurgents engaged in illegal logging of teak, mining of jade. The Kokang and Wa states in the Shan State of Myanmar emerged as the most important source of heroin in the world in the 1980s. These same regions have become important hubs of the production of crystal meth, not just for Myanmar but for the broader region of southeast Asia. Ethnic insurgencies continue to run in Myanmar. Since 2009, the Arakan Army, representing the Buddhist majority in the Rakhine state where the Rohingya genocide occurred, has created an army of nearly 10,000 increasingly capable of taking the Tatmadaw head on. While many ethnic insurgents have been incorporated as semi-autonomous border guards, it is unlikely ethnic insurgency will end any time soon.

The Tatmadaw
The Tatmadaw has been the dominant political and economic force in Myanmar since Ne Win’s military coup in 1962. The Tatmadaw imposed a xenophobic dictatorship cutting off contact with the outside world. The Tatmadaw expelled vast numbers of Indian and Chinese people, many of whom born and raised in the country and expropriated their businesses. Moroever, the Tatmadaw nationalized all private businesses, launching what they called the Burmese Way to Socialism. However, the Tatmadaw did not have the capacity to manage Myanmar’s economy. Even as other nations in south east Asia such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia saw spectacular economic growth, GDP per capita in Myanmar stagnated between 1962 and 1988. In 1988, the Tatmadaw’s mismanagement reached an extreme when the government invalidated almost all currency, wiping out the savings of millions, because the government wanted a currency divisible by nine for astrological reasons.

A massive popular protest briefly unseated the Tatmadaw, but in 1989 the military reasserted its power. While the armed forces remained as brutal as ever, the Tatmadaw took a much more pragmatic approach to ethnic insurgents (as I discussed above) and the economy. From 1989, the military has allowed a partial liberalization, allowing economic growth the accelerate markedly from the early 1990s onwards. The Tatmadaw has profited mightily from these trends. Two of Myanmar’s ten largest conglomerates are owned by the Tatmadaw, including UMEHL, one of the two largest conglomerates in the country.

These military businesses benefit from preferential treatment, with military linked companies gaining access to protected teak forests and foreign companies forced to partner with military companies when investing in Myanmar. Even businesses not directly connected to the military require connections to the ruling Junta to thrive with two of Myanmar’s 10 largest conglomerates controlled by the sons of or married into elite military families. The Tatmadaw is so determined to stay in power in part because it wants to protect its control of private wealth, while at the same time the businesses the Tatmadaw controls gives it a level of independence from any civilian oversight.

The Rise of a Fragile Liberalism
During 8888 uprising in 1988, massive protests mobilizing millions were able to force long time dictator Ne Win from power. Aung San Suu Kyi emerged as a leader, and her National League for Democracy was able to win an overwhelming majority in 1990. Although the military rejected the 1990 election results with extreme brutality, it also lost interest in running Myanmar. The military did not want to be in charge of irrigation of the Irrawaday, or traffic in Yangon and from the 2000s onwards began a slow process of letting an elected civilian government manage day to day governance, with the Tatmadaw controlling foreign affairs and security.

The legitimacy of the Tatmadaw was further tarnished by a series of massive policy failures. In 2007, a government petrol price hike caused snowballs that protested into the Saffron Revolution. Supported by the powerful Burmese monkhood, mass protests were only put down with government repression. In 2008 Cyclone Nargis killed over 140,000 people, but the Tatmadaw refused all international assistance. In 2011, massive protests forced the government to back down on the construction of a $3.6 billion China backed dam. The Tatmadaw felt pressured into transitioning to a civilian government led by former generals in 2010, and genuine multiparty elections in 2015.

Aung San Suu Kyi was released in 2010, and allowed to run in the 2015 elections. Her National League For Democracy again won an overwhelming victory, winning more than 80% of seats contestable. Myanmar’s democracy from the beginning was deeply flawed. Most importantly, Myanmar’s democratic leaders proved incapable of stopping the Rohingya genocide and actively defended it in to the world. Moreover, Aung San Suu Kyi proved to be more than willing to imprison journalists and critics. Most importantly, the Tatmadaw controls a quarter of all seats in the legislature and there is no effective civilian control of the military.

Despite the fragility of Myanmar’s liberalization, massive real change has occurred. Myanmar has consistently been one of the fastest growing economies in the world, driven in particular by its ready made garment industry. Between 2019 and 2015 garment exports increased more than 6-fold from $900 million to $6 billion. Moreover, garments are largely by medium sized businesses either owned by international investors or local entrepreneurs with few ties to the big conglomerates. While still desperately poor by developed country standards, Yangon and Mandalay have seen rapid growth. Smartphones and internet are becoming widespread, giving people access to information beyond government censorship.

Conclusion
After another overwhelming victory for Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD, the NLD increasingly began discussing the structural limits to its power. The military responded with a coup based upon spurious charges of vote rigging, charging Aaung San Suu Kyi with illegally owning walkie-talkies. While some ethnic minority leaders initially saw opportunity in the coup, the overwhelming majority of people of all ethnic groups are backing the protests. Millions of protestors have flooded the streets, and strikes by civil servants and white collar professionals have given the pro-democracy real leverage. In particular, walkouts at the Myanmar Economic Bank has made it difficult for the government to pay civil servants. Nevertheless, the Tatmadaw has a long history of violence, and scores of protestors have already lost their lives. It is unclear what it will take to finally remove the Tatmadaw from power.

Select Sources:
The Fall of the Burmese Kingdom in 1885: Review and Reconsideration, Ernest C.T Chew
Indian and Chinese Immigrant Communities: Comparative Perspectives, Renaud Egretau
Building the Tatmadaw: Myanmar Armed Forces Since 1948, Mung Aung Myoe
The idea of freedom in Burma and the political thought of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi , J Silverstein
Even paranoids have enemies: Cyclone Nargis and Myanmar’s fears of invasion, A Selth
Under the Iron Thumb: Forced Labor in Myanmar. Anil Raj
PROFILING NON-STATE ARMED INSURGENT GROUPS OF MYANMAR, Tripathi Anurag
Overshadowed by kala India­‑Burma Relations, Michael Lubina
“The Burmese Way to Socialism” , Fred R Von Der Mehden
Business conglomerates in the context of Myanmar’s economic reform , A Min, T Kudo
The 1990 Elections in Myanmar: Broken Promises or a Failure of Communication? Derek Tonkin
Burma in Transition: On the Path to Democracy, David Faehnle
Burma’s Military Blocks Constitutional Amendments, Congressional Research Service