Welcome to 2017!
Corn (H17)  352’4   +’4
Soybeans (H17) 1001’2    -2’6
Chi Wheat (H17) 410’0  +2’0
KC Wheat  (H17)  419’0  +’4
Cotton (H17) 71.58   +.93
 
So far, the overnight price action in 2017 has been quiet at the CBOT and a little bullish in cotton as we get the year started. The currency price action is right where the trade left it, with a strong dollar dominating the trade.  It’s hard to see what changes this, at least in the short run. This week, the macro calendar has us getting FOMC meeting minutes (in the last meeting the Fed hiked rates) on Wednesday and then a whole bunch of employment data at the back end of the week.  On the ag newsflow side of things, official reports are relegated to the normal weekly reports (pushed back one day) and a focus on the WASDE report that comes out January 12th (Thurs).
Weather watching will be the theme until we get more data, and even after the data weather still will dictate price action. It sounds like there have been “too much moisture: problem talk coming out of Argentina. IN Brazil, everything appears to be copacetic except the extreme northern growing regions near Bahia.  I have yet to see any analysts write down production losses yet, until they do the market probably trades with that 100 mmt bean number in mind.  It will be very interesting to see how the funds trade this market early in 2017. Seasonally, wheat is a sell, corn and beans tend to perform and cotton peaks out after the first few weeks in the near year. Ill be back mid-week with the seasonal charts for ya’ll.
CHECK OUT THE AUDIO COMMENTS BELOW FOR COTTON AND CFTC REVIEW