nMac talks about sentiment, it’s faults and features, what could go right, the valuation problem, why bonds are attractive, next week’s jobs number, and the latest on government spending bill.
Renmac discusses the Fed’s neutral rate, persistent strength in employment, Neil’s personal microcosm of housing, the potential for a government shutdown, real rates and the implicit message behind Bi
RenMac highlights Larry Sabato’s higher than consensus’ odds of R’s taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relative performance of discretionary vs staples, importance
The RenMac team discusses Queen Elizabeth’s legacy, why Biden is leaving Trump’s China tariffs in place, markets pricing in 150bps over the next three Fed meetings, labor market remaining hot, why the
The RenMac team discusses how the U.S. economy is not slowing down and what that means for the Fed moving forward, Biden’s political speech aimed at motivating the Democratic base ahead of the midterm
Neil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.
The RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing recession is different, momentum signals in the market, an
Biden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s
The RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term curve should be steeper, whether jobs are a lagging i
The RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high signal, markets misreading the Fed, futures suggesting a