Hey Hey Giovanni here! Your weatherguy. So we had no rain this week, just warm spring like conditions. I'm focusing today on El Niño so feel free to read ahead.

Weekly Forecast: The coming week will start out dry, but rain late in the week is possible as the jet stream pushes into NorCal as global weather patterns shift, bringing back winter for what could be 2-3 weeks of some very wet weather.  The Thursday storm doesn't look too impressive and we will likely only receive no more than 0.25" of rain. The real storminess is still more than a week away. I'll keep you updated of course.

*Statewide Sierra snow pack is at around 88% of normal for this date!

Weekly Rain and Snow for Nevada City

Rainfall so far Today
0.00"

Rainfall This Week
0.00"

Rainfall This Month
1.82"

Rain in Nevada City since July 1st 2015
31.20"

Snowfall in Nevada City so far this season
1"

El Niño update: So what really happened to El Niño? I know many of you are asking this same question. Honestly. I'm as surprised as you are. This month had all the potential on being the wettest month of the season. Instead we are ending the month with less than 2" of rain, where average is just over 10" for February. Even the snow pack which was at one point at 120% of average, has now slipped to 88% due to a very dry month.

So why so dry? El Niño is an anomaly that irregularly develops across the warm Pacific Ocean waters every 7 to 10 yrs. The last really strong El Niño before this year was back in 1997-98 and before that 1982-83. Both of those super El Niños brought heavy rains, severe flooding, and a massive snow pack to even the Mtns of Los Angeles. This year in sharp contrast,  has only brought us a somewhat average Sierra snow pack, but less than average rainfall for Western Nevada County.

To make it worse. Los Angeles has only had just over 4" of rain for the season, normal for this date is closer to 8". This lack of rain to our south during a strong El Niño is disturbing. This is a key indicator that something has gone off the rails with this super El Niño. I know what some of you have been hinting at. Nope. I don't believe in "geoengineering." I'll leave that nonsense to people that fail at understanding the most basic scientific principles. I only discuss science here, not unproven or misleading anecdotal data from highly suspect sources looking to make a fast buck on the uninformed. Thank you for understanding.

So here's what we have learned: To have a strong El Niño, you need more than just the warming of +3°C across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. You also need the air sea coupling that comes in the form of the southern branch of the Jet Stream emanating from east Asia. Due to a strong Polar jet across Canada this pattern has only developed a few times this season. We saw a few of these Atmospheric River (a narrow band of extreme moisture riding the Jet Stream) events slam Southern California a few times in January, but overall our storms have dropped down from the more familiar North Pacific entirely missing much of Central and Southern California. This is why we've had good rains at times, but not the repeated 2-3 day deluge we have come to expect from a super El Niño.

Here's what has gone wrong so far: The persistent upper level Low that is now over the Bering Sea should have developed and remained closer to 150°W just north of the Hawaiian Islands to trigger the air and sea coupling necessary for these huge El Niño enhanced storms to develop. Instead, the misplaced Low has kept a succession of High pressure ridges over the west coast and the storms that have developed have been trending mostly north lately, missing us for the most part. The difference of only a few hundred miles has had a huge impact on this year's El Niño, but it's not over. Heating of the Pacific ocean is latent and although El Niño has peaked, the potential for El Niño enhanced storminess will be with us through the middle of spring.

M