The Real Economy
“The economy added 6 million jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in nearly 50 years”. But, The average monthly gain under Trump so far is 188,000 — compared with an average monthly gain of 217,000 during Obama’s second term. The real unemployment rate (U-6) is a broader definition of unemployment than the official unemployment rate (U-3). In December 2019, it was 6.7%.1 The U-3 is the rate most often reported in the media. In the U-3 rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics only counts people without jobs who are in the labor force. To remain in the labor force, they must have looked for a job in the last four weeks.
The Labor Force Participation Rate, was 62.9 percent when Trump was sworn in. Three years later it’s at 63.3 percent, less than one half of a percentage point increase. In fact when the labor participation rate was almost identical to today’s, Trump claimed during the 2016 election that we had a real unemployment rate of over 40 percent.
The U-6, or real unemployment rate, includes the underemployed, the marginally attached, and discouraged workers. For that reason, it is around double the U-3 report.Trump's ongoing trade wars have also sapped business confidence. Companies are pulling back on hiring workers as a result.
Today’s numbers seem great and could be a factor to reelect the president, but let’s take a deeper look. It’s not just the economy. Even if they took home slightly bigger paychecks, employees have also confronted the rising price tags of housing, education and skyrocketing healthcare costs some economists now compare to another tax on their income.
People are working two to three jobs to get by, wages are essentially flat, and layoffs are on the uptick. The 2020 Democratic presidential candidates make this a top campaign issue, right up there with calling out Trump’s efforts to end you and your family’s coverage for pre-existing medical conditions—along with all the other benefits of the Affordable Health Care Act.
Our nation’s manufacturing sector is not only officially in a recession, but one that is becoming worse each month. In November, new manufacturing orders and employment dropped at a rate worse than the month before. That marks the fourth straight month that the manufacturing sector has contracted.
Economic growth fell far short of the annual 4% to 6% Trump promised. The most recent rate is 2.0%. And, The federal debt went up more than $2.4 trillion. The annual deficit hit nearly $1 trillion in fiscal year 2019 – the highest since 2012.
But, how people feel about the economy? Much of the benefit of the current growth has gone to people at the top of ladder, leaving many Americans feeling dissatisfied. A Monmouth University poll in April found that only 12% of Americans said their families had “benefited a great deal” from recent economic growth, and only 18% said that middle-class families had benefited a lot from Trump’s economic policies.
All, take the poll from Florida Atlantic University shows how much other issues overshadow the economy. The poll showed Florida, a crucial state electorally, as a toss-up. In hypothetical matchups, Trump tied or narrowly trailed each of the major Democratic candidates. This shows an erosion of the president’s numbers. Florida, once again, will be up for grabs.
In that same, poll Trump voters, the economy came in third place. behind immigration and foreign policy/terrorism (16%). For Democratic voters, the economy ranked behind healthcare as a motivating issue.
President Trump’s behavior also plays a role — his core supporters love his style, but it takes a big toll on his standing with other voters. Even as a good economy pushes his approval upward, the rest of the package pushes him down.
The reason why an improving economy used to improve a president’s standing is that it caused some voters to cross party lines and support a person ...