Loh Down on Science: Special Pandemic Edition
Uncertainly Certain
Scientists in the media often have uncertainties around talking about experimental uncertainties. Why? Because they worry about trust! Error and uncertainty has a specific meaning in science. It gives us hard numbers on how much we can trust a measurement. But, the unfamiliar may believe it means mistakes and incompetence. In order to avoid any loss in public trust in science itself, scientists may not always talk about it. Are these fears grounded in reality? An important new study on uncertainty and trust certainly sheds light on the topic.
References
Anne Marthe van der Bles, Sander van der Linden, Alexandra L. J. Freeman, David J. Spiegelhalter. The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers. PNAS April 7, 2020 117 (14) 7672-7683; first published March 23, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1913678117