Christian Financial Perspectives
188 – The Ultimate 2023 Financial Recap
The Ultimate 2023 Financial Recap
A 2023 financial recap to help look forward to what 2024 might hold.
What financial topics first come to mind when recalling 2023? Is it the emotional rollercoaster of 2023’s stock market or the endless printing of money? Bob and Shawn want to provide perspective on key events that impacted many financial portfolios. Before looking ahead, they are recapping the past year’s twists and turns.
This includes the markets’ obsession with interest rates, as well as the volatility caused by concerns about the Federal Reserve’s actions. Looking ahead to 2024, it is important to remember the ups and downs of 2023 in order to make more informed financial decisions for the future.
HOSTED BY: Bob Barber, CWS®, CKA®
CO-HOST: Shawn Peters
Mentioned In This Episode
Christian Financial Advisors
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EPISODE TRANSCRIPT
Shawn:
Recalling the emotional rollercoaster of 2023’s stock market? Want perspective on key events that impacted your portfolio? Before looking ahead, we’re recapping the past year’s twists and turns. Let’s get some perspective.
Welcome to another episode of Christian Financial Perspectives. We’re so glad that you’ve joined us. My name is Shawn Peters for those who haven’t joined us before, and I’m joined by my co-host and Father-in-Law, Bob Barber. Today we are bringing you our 2023 financial recap, and this is released right after Christmas, but we did – because of the magic of Hollywood recording or whatever you want to call it, we believe it or not, did have to record this a little before we published it. So if anything has come out since right before Christmas or after that we don’t have on here, we apologize. Maybe we can try to put something in the description, but yeah, what a year. I mean, we have grown a lot, I feel like Bob, as a show.
Bob:
We have.
Shawn:
For those who don’t know.
Bob:
Had 180 episodes now. Yeah, we started off as a podcast the first three years.
Shawn:
This should be episode 188.
Bob:
Is that what it is?
Shawn:
Yep. So we’ll hit our 200, 201 come 2024.
Bob:
Exciting.
Shawn:
Just a quick shout out for those who don’t know, my wife took over editing, not sure how many episodes exactly back, but Bob’s oldest daughter, and thank you, Jenna. I think she’s done an awesome job. Hopefully you guys have appreciated some of the graphics and transitions, and it’s made a difference.
Bob:
She makes you and I sound good. I know that.
Shawn:
Which is a task.
Bob:
If we stumble by the way, she takes a stumbling out.
Shawn:
Exactly. Well, as much as she can. Yeah.
Bob:
Alright, so let’s get to the financial recap. Thank you very much, Jenna, for the incredible job that you do. Of course, you’re extremely smart and you go beyond anything that your dad has ever done, I think so. It was quite a year, Shawn, as we look back and do a financial recap of 2023, we had a market totally consumed with interest rates. I mean, you couldn’t turn on the financial news daily without nearly every interview.
Shawn:
Something related to interest…
Bob:
Something to do with interest rates and how they were going to be affected by consumer news. And then we ended up having a very narrow stock market that we’re going to go into a little bit here for much of the year just based on what they call the “Magnificent Seven”.
Shawn:
I like how you said that, Bob, for anyone watching that may not have seen one of these, but we do a monthly bullet point. It’s meant to be a two to three minute little recap of what was going on. And Bob called the S&P 500 the S&P 7, because that’s basically the tail wagging the dog is those seven companies.
Bob:
That’s what it was for the first 10 months, but it’s now spreading out. And then we had some of those bank failures earlier in the year, so let’s get to it. The market consumed with interest rates. You could not turn on the daily news without the concerns about the Federal Reserve and what they were going to do based on employment, unemployment, data, inflation, retail sales, and it just caused extreme volatility throughout the year.
Shawn:
That’s right. That’s right. And the Fed increased interest rates by a 0.25% increments in February, March, May, and July,
Bob:
And that was the last one in July. They’re not going to have any more interest rate increases – by the latest news that we have. The 10 year treasury bond was a really big newsmaker and the 10 year treasury bond, the reason that’s so important is that’s based a lot on how mortgage rates play into the equation. And in July it was a little bit under 4%, but then it rose to nearly 5%. It actually touched 5%.
Shawn:
It kind of kept touching…it was flirting with 5%.
Bob:
For one day, it went over 5% for just 10 minutes. We speak to you right now…
Shawn:
And that was the peak, like mid October.
Bob:
Yeah. And as we speak to you today, as of December 14th, 15th, the 10 year bond has gone back below 4%. I mean, this is just really fresh news as we bring the podcast to you today. So, it’s really been interesting to watch these rates pop around. You could see as the 10 year bond rate went up, the markets went down, vice versa. So it’s ended up being this yearend rally, and I was predicting this yearend rally. Our clients kept calling us, I said we’re going to have a yearend rally. I see it. It’s written all over the, it’s just in the handwriting, nearly.
Shawn:
Just a lot of factors.
Bob:
But it has been, you’ve been whipsawing around a lot this year and it just proves you’ve had to have a long-term perspective and not let your emotions get involved investing. Okay.
Shawn:
That’s right. As Bob mentioned earlier, it was also a very extremely narrow market for stock returns for the first 10 months of the year.
Bob:
And that was based on basically the seven companies, which these are woke companies, so we don’t invest in ’em. They’re not biblically responsible, but it was Apple and Google, Microsoft, Meta – which is Facebook, Tesla, and Nvidia, not the other 493 companies of the S&P 500. It’s like these seven just went off and left the other 493 in the dust. But the way that it’s reported in the news, it’s reported always is the cap weighted, not the equally weight, S&P 500. So if you were to look at the equally weighted S&P 500, which is a better way of looking at the Fortune 500, you’ll see the difference in how they just pulled apart. And a lot of that had to do with AI coming out, artificial intelligence, made a huge splash.
Shawn:
Even though there’s been a lot going on in that space, it seems like 2023 was kind of the year of AI with just so many different areas that it was affecting. And of course there’s also a lot of speculation on, oh, it’s going to do this or that, and there are many things I’ve heard. I’m not going to go into any details, but there’s some stuff that you see it come across and okay, realistically that’s probably more like a 10 year thing, but people are acting as if it’s happening in 2024.
Bob:
There was so much emphasis put on Nvidia because Nvidia came out with some very good news, and Nvidia went up to over 240% at one point.
Shawn:
And if I remember correctly about that, it was partially to do with the way, for those who haven’t looked into it as much, but believe it or not, AI does require a lot of computing power, but it’s a little bit different in the way that it works. And so Nvidia, a big part of their increase had to do with them getting involved and starting to be used more, I think, on the GPU side of things for the AI. Yeah, that was interesting to see this company going up this much kind of reminds you of the 1999 internet bubble.
Bob:
Yes, A little bit. So fast, so quick. The PE ratios just got way out of whack – way, way, far away from the overall average PE of the market. And will it be able to catch it thinking that these are really the only guys in town and now the news is coming out more and more that it’s not. I just heard another company, a big, big company, I’m not going to mention the name, because that’d be like saying a stock tip, but this morning how all their computers are going to be built with the AI chips, and they’re not getting them from Nvidia.
Shawn:
Which dropped Nvidia down about 20% from their earlier highs. As of when we’re recording.
Bob:
And it is not just that news, but it has just gotten a little, as I say, frothy. So the last several months of the year, it’s been interesting to watch the market returns finally spreading out to the other 493 companies. Okay.
Shawn:
Yeah, exactly.
Bob:
But in the beginning of the year also, we had these large bank failures we had back in the spring, and this caused widespread fear that other banks are going to collapse. We saw the entire banking sector just being sold off, ridiculously dropping by 28% and 30% in value, creating some really good buys, by the way. And it was basically, the two large banks were the Silicon Valley Bank. We heard that in the news back then as Signature Bank, and they were the third and fourth largest bank failures in the United States since 2001 in total assets lost. So that was a big deal, but we seem to have gotten past that now and I’m glad that we have.
Shawn:
Well, because remember, the banking system works as long as we all think it works. Which, I mean, it kind of is about that simple.
Bob:
Yeah, that’s right. So the last part of, as we recap 2024, there seemed to be a constant fear of recession and it wasn’t, I mean, not 2023, I mean going into 2024. For 2023, there was a constant fear of recession. By the way, this has been going on now for about 18 months. It’s just recession, recession, recession is going to happen, and it never did. The unemployment rate never went above 4% for the whole year of 2023.
Shawn:
Which is phenomenal.
Bob:
And the CPI inflation, consumer price index, it started off at 6% at the beginning of the year, and now it’s half that.
Shawn:
Yep. 3.1.
Bob:
Yeah. So that’s right at half that. We were pointing this out the other day. We saw GDP numbers come out, which were double what they were a year earlier.
Shawn:
It came in at 5.2% compared to 2.7% a year earlier, which is phenomenal. I mean, anytime our GDP is 5% or higher, that’s a good rate. And what was the analysts originally? I think they thought it was going to be 4.9, I think, or 4.8, and then the initial results came out at 5.0, but then when they finalized the results, it came out at 5.2. So I mean it’s been good.
Bob:
So the economy has been operating on all eight cylinders if it was an eight cylinder car.
Shawn:
Yeah, I think it was the third quarter earnings came out and for the S&P 500 companies, over 80% of the companies beat the estimates.
Bob:
Beat the estimates. They sure did. That’s right. The supply of goods was nice, too. This last year it seemed like the supply caught up with the demand. And when I drive by the car dealerships now I see so many cars where I remember at the beginning of ’23 and at the end of ’22, the lots, they were empty. But now there is plenty of supply, even maybe a little bit too much supply, which is helping to pull down inflation. That’s a recap of 2023. Looking ahead in 2024, first of all, it’s a presidential election year. Need we say more? The party in power usually wants to do everything that it can that’s possible to make that economy look really good so they can get back in power in the election.
Shawn:
Which I know they’re going to do that. I’m just hoping that maybe we won’t get as much printing money and passing out stimulus checks and all these other things, make people feel good because…
Bob:
Don’t buy the votes. Please don’t buy the votes. Come on.
Shawn:
They do that. And don’t be fooled by that. They send out these checks and you think, oh, sweet, I got an extra thousand bucks or 600 bucks a person or whatever it is.
Bob:
It’s crazy inflation.
Shawn:
But it’s just going to make it worse. Three, four months later, now inflation’s worse.
Bob:
Yeah, right.
Shawn:
It’s the worst thing they could do. Anyway.
Bob:
I’m worried a little bit that the Federal Reserve just said yesterday as we make the program again, that maybe we’re going to lower rates three times next year. Hopefully that’s not going to be a political thing and it’s going to turn that way, but because that could be a concern. The markets love it when interest rates go down, and so if they start lowering those rates, but they need to be careful because they over tightened and now they need to be careful of loosening up too much.
Shawn:
Well, I mean, if anything, Bob, they should have just said, we’re not planning on making any rate changes next year. Just leave it alone for a while. Yeah, because it’s like they keep acting like they’re driving a speedboat instead of a huge tanker.
Bob:
Well, that’s one of the things that’s pushed the market up so quick though, too.
Shawn:
Just the announcement that they’re going to drop rates.
Bob:
Because they’re thinking it’s going to happen around March or April is what the market’s thinking, and maybe another one by the summertime. You know what? We’ll just wait and to see, bottom line. I think returns in 2024 are going to continue to spread out, also, just from the Magnificent Seven as we called it, or the S&P 7, that’s what the CNBC and they called it the Magnificent Seven, but everybody’s talking about that now because so much money went just into that piece of the market, it needs to spread back out. And that’s what’s happening right now.
Shawn:
Which is good. That’s better in the long run.
Bob:
And I think we’re going to see short-term CD rates for banks that’s going to be going down this next year. Of course, when rates go down, boy, it was nice while it lasted. It lasted about a year, year and a half above 5.0%, 5.5%. I looked this morning. You can still get a 5.5% rate. If you can get it, go for it.
Shawn:
Because if you can find one for a 12 month…
Bob:
Take it!
Shawn:
Take it. It’s not going to be around very long.
Bob:
If you can find one for a 24 month, definitely take it. I saw some three year CDs this morning, like 4.9%, I may even take that. So close to 5%. So there you go. That’s a lot of information. I hope that was a good recap for you. We hope you have a very happy New Year. We’re looking forward to the year coming up. Anything else?
Shawn:
As always, thanks for joining us and if you have any specific topics you’d love to see us cover or possibly discuss on an episode, pop that in the comments, or you can visit our website, www.ChristianFinancialAdvisors.com, or you can call or text us, (830) 609-6986.
Bob:
We got some great topics coming up in the next two to three weeks, so stay tuned because we’ve already made some of those programs and they’re very good for the time period.
Shawn:
We’re always open to suggestions.
Bob:
Yes, absolutely.
Shawn:
So thank you as always, and God bless.
[DISCLOSURES]
* Investment advisory services offered through Christian Investment Advisors Inc dba Christian Financial Advisors, a registered investment advisor registered with the SEC. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Comments from today’s show are for informational purposes only and not to be considered investment advice or recommendations to buy or sell any company that may have been mentioned or discussed. The opinions expressed are solely those of the hosts, Bob Barber and Shawn Peters, and their guests. Bob and Shawn do not provide tax advice and encourage you to seek guidance from a tax professional. While Christian Financial Advisors believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability.
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