TWIG Cast (This Week in Grain)

TWIG Cast  (This Week in Grain)


This Week in Grain- 11/10 AM Update

November 10, 2016

Good morning friends!
Corn 343’4  +2’6
Soybeans  1015’4   +17’2
Chi Wheat   410’6   +4’0
KC Wheat  413’4    +3’2
Cotton  69.02    +.73

Commodities are up across the board, trading with a post election euphoria that many we’re not expecting. The Hillary folks have to be shocked that stocks are trading at all time highs after a major knee jerk selloff as it appeared Trump was going to win. The post election price action has looked like this:

* – US interest rates higher (futures prices lower)
* -Commodities higher (especially industrial metals)
* -Equities higher
* -USD higher, Chinese Yuan is making 6 year lows.

Head scratching price action for sure.  I think we are seeing money flow out of the treasury markets and go into more risky assets.  This is something we haven’t seen in months.  I can’t imagine we see trends stay like this for too long, but as long as copper rallies I would be hesitant to sell much.  Cotton, beans and copper are three big chinese markets, I expect we could see some push for days ahead. That said, I remain a seller of cotton on Dec 17 at 73.00.
CONAB has given us our second outlook on Brazilian soybean production, 102.6 MMTs, vs. 103.0 MMTs in October. First-crop corn production is raised to 27.9 MMTs, vs. 27 MMTs in October.  The South American forecast is drier in Argentina beyond Nov 17, but is otherwise little changed. Rains will persist across all of Central and Northern Brazil in the near future.
 


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