As you will hear today, there is no one property market in Australia and that is being highlighted as we continue to look at the various markets that make up the country.  That in fact is the first point Michael Yardney makes when we ask him about Victoria.  Interesting to note that while we all talk about the big gains out of Sydney, you might be surprised to hear what Michael says about the performance of the Melbourne market.

Next we go to Western Australia where Damien Collins says the market there continues to suffer from the downturn in mining and the over building for first home buyers.  Lots of lessons coming from that part of the country.

We visit beautiful pristine Tasmania with its unofficial Ambassador John Lindeman.  John passionately believes in the apple isle and it appears from the figures he shares with us that he is not the only one.

Cameron Kusher from Core Logic RP Data gives us the national overview this week and he points to a slowing in the rate of national capital growth and says that while more people are bringing their properties onto the market they are not selling and that is resulting in more choice for buyers.

One of the big improvers tipped for this year is Queensland and Shannon Davis gives us his view on the outlook there.  He points out that while the Queensland market overall has had a solid year, it is sometimes compared to Sydney and Melbourne, where the growth has been spectacular and the improvement is discounted.

 Bernard Hickey joins us for the first look at the New Zealand market which is going gangbusters and he explains why that is the case.

 

Transcripts:

Michael Yardney - 

Kevin:  First up on the show, let’s have a look at one of the bigger markets around Australia. Sydney and Melbourne, of course, have been recognized as the two big winners going forward, and we’ll have a look at the Victorian market now. Joining me to have an overview of that, Michael Yardney from Metropole Property Strategists.

Michael, I know you work all over Australia, but for the sake of this chat, can we talk purely about the Victorian market?

Michael:  Of course, we can, Kevin.

Kevin:  What is your overview of Victoria, and how the property market is faring there?

Michael:  Let’s be clear. There is not one Victorian property market. When people talk about Victoria, they generally mean Melbourne. Even within Melbourne, it’s very much a fragmented market. But Melbourne has won the two-horse race between Sydney and Melbourne over the last couple of years with now last year, the last 12 months, having a 9.8% overall capital growth, which means certain areas have done particularly nicely and others haven’t as strong.

Looking even over the last ten years, the average dwelling price has changed 6.9% in Melbourne, which is the highest growth over the last decade compared to Sydney, which only grew at 5.9%, Darwin 5.6%, and the overall state capitals at 5.4%, so Melbourne has been the clear winner.

Kevin:  What’s impacting the market there right now, both positively and negatively?

Michael:  The big thing that has impacted the Melbourne property market that has kept it growing is our economy and jobs creation. Kevin, we didn’t have the ups and downs of the other states, so we didn’t get the mining boom and mining bust mentality. What we did do was slowly but surely, change from a manufacturing state to a services industry state with finance, health, and IT jobs, which were good-paying jobs.

People came for the jobs. Wages growth in the service industries allowed people to be able to spend more, they had high disposable income, and they wanted to live in the city, and more of them are coming here, so strong population growth and strong jobs growth pushing up values. Then it led investors to hop onto the bandwagon of capital growth, as well, so it was a multitude of factors.

Kevin:  How would you describe investor sentiment in that area now, Michael?